The Demise of Flash?
The current and future status of Flash doesn’t look good for Adobe.
The Adobe Flash Internet media display technology has been, until the last year or so, a staple in website media. Flash had a 98% adoption rate among Internet connected computers. Flash often came pre-installed on consumer computer systems and was used religously by Internet developers. Often times an entire website was compiled within a single Flash file, with the 2% of non-flash users considered an acceptable loss. Flash was the king of the Internet and everyone believed that it would be here forever. Noone imagined that Flash would ever become obsolete. However, the iOS and HTML5 appear to have dictated the demise of Adobe Flash. Flash is becoming as relevant as dialup Internet, AOL, and the cassette tape.
As a website developer who exclusively develops modern, standards compatible web designs, Flash is on my ‘no list’. Numerous Internet sources are increasingly claiming that Internet access is graduating to mobile devices. Morgan Stanley research estimates disclosed in June 2011 that mobile device Internet access is nearly equal to that of notebook Internet access, and by 2012, mobile device Internet access will exceed that of notebook Internet access. Currently mobile Internet access is more than twice that of desktop Internet access. These facts are underscored by the ComScore report published in June 2011 that iPads and iPhones are now the dominant mobile web devices. This is to the dismay of Adobe Flash, as neither iPad nor iPhone support Flash. Therefore, anyone trying to view Adobe Flash on an iOS device will see only blank space.
Because of these trends, I often find myself recommending to potential clients that they replace the Flash animation on their website homepages with static images or HTML5 animated images. I I explain to my clients that, “with the popularity of the iOS and the release of HTML5 in 2010, the use of Flash on modern websites has become depreciated. Anyone who views your website on an iPhone, iPod or iPad cannot see the Flash animation, unless a special third party app is installed on their device”.
Just last week I had a potential client call and ask for advice regarding their website. “You called me just in time”, I told the oblivious website owner. “Your entire website is compiled inside of a Flash container, and therefore, a large percentage of your Internet audience can’t see your website at all!”. The client was shocked, as his website was only a year old. It looked real nice, as long as you had Flash installed on your computer. But on an iPhone or iPad, it was a big blank space.
I must admit that I am not an Apple user. I have an Android phone. I have 8 PCs. My son is the only one in my household with an Apple product, which is an iPhone. However as a professional web developer, it is part of my job to be very conscientious about Internet market trends. And the facts are clear. HTML5 is only going to become more predominant over the next few years, which will abate the presence of Flash. Apple continues to refuse to support Flash, and everytime Adobe launches technology to circumvent the lack of Flash support in iOS, Apple swiftly overrides Adobe’s attempts. Mobile devices will soon be the most dominant method for Internet access. And since the iPhone and the iPad dominate mobile Internet access, Adobe Flash has little future.
The last hope for Flash… Amazon Kindle. Only time will tell.
